Imagine if your brain got 10 times smarter every year over the past decade, and you were on pace for more 10x compounding increases in intelligence over at least the next five. Throw in precise recall of everything you’ve ever learned and the ability to synthesize all those materials instantly in any language. You wouldn’t be just the smartest person to have ever lived — you’d be all the smartest people to have ever lived. (Though not the wisest.) That’s a plausible trajectory of the largest AI models. This explains how, since roughly the middle of the Obama administration, AI has gone from a precocious toddler to blowing through many of the supposed barriers between human and machine capabilities. The winners and losers might be in flux, but AI is likely to insinuate itself into most aspects of our lives.
The processors will keep processing — and we need to get ready. That means planning for everything from basic privacy and IP regulations to topsy-turvy labor markets and even “Fury Road.” Because however far-fetched the idea of an artificial general intelligence — meaning an autonomous system that one day surpasses human abilities and might deem us, er, dispensable — it’s not impossible. We can also look out for the many ways AI tools can help us fix the hard problems humanity simply hasn’t been able to crack.
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