The origin of the Covid virus remains the pandemicโs biggest mystery. Did the virus jump to human beings from animals being sold at a food market in Wuhan, China? Or did the virus leak from a laboratory in Wuhan?
U.S. officials remain divided.
A recent Times Opinion essay โ by Alina Chan, a biologist โ refocused attention on the issue by making the case for the lab-leak theory. In todayโs newsletter, Iโll try to lay out the clearest arguments for each side to help you decide which you consider more likely.
The case for natural transmission
1. Itโs the norm.
Covid is part of the coronavirus family, so named because the virus contains a protein shaped like a spike. (Corona is the Latin word for crown.) In recent decades, the main way that coronaviruses have infected people is through animal-to-human transmission, which is also known as natural transmission.
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The case for a lab leak
1. Follow the lab
If historical logic points to natural transmission, a different concept arguably points to a lab leak: Occamโs razor. Itโs a philosophical principle holding that the simplest explanation for a phenomenon is usually the correct one. In this case, a new SARS-like virus started in a city with one of the worldโs leading labs for researching SARS-like viruses. Many Chinese cities have markets selling live animals; only one is home to the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
