Climate change associated with GHG emissions is typically perceived to influence agricultural productivity through three primary channels. Other things being equal, increased carbon dioxide and ozone in the atmosphere and rising surface temperatures both affect plant growth. In addition, changes in precipitation associated with warmer global temperatures also affect agricultural productivity.
Much of this research suggests that not only will yields tend to fall as climate changes but also the risks associated with variable crop yields will increase because weather patterns are likely to become more volatile.
However, many of these studies fail to account for innovations in crop varieties that affect and often reduce the impacts of heat- and drought-related stress on crop yields.
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Technological innovations—and the research efforts that underpin their discovery—clearly adapt and respond to changing needs associated with changing environmental and market conditions. This is especially true in agriculture, where recent innovations in seed breeding and genetic modification techniques (e.g., CRISPR) have yielded crops that are much more resilient to weather stresses.
Those who suggest the opposite is true are offering hypotheses that do not square with the assessments of farmers who witness the impacts of climate-driven weather patterns firsthand.
