For more than a decade, as scientists tried to evaluate just how much the planet might warm by the end of the century, the most extreme scenario they considered in models was one in which humanity doubled down on burning of fossil fuels, took no action to limit emissions and suffered profound consequences as the world grew hotter.
Now, as time has passed and the world has changed, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change seems poised to retire its most extreme future emissions scenario, commonly known as RCP 8.5, after scientists found that those projections “have become implausible.”
Some on the right, including President Donald Trump, are now suggesting the move shows that global warming does not pose a significant threat. Many climate scientists, however, say the reality is more nuanced. They note that the deployment of renewable energy and other factors has helped avert the kind of runaway warming that once seemed more conceivable, even as climate change still poses serious risks around the globe.
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