In power since sweeping to victory in 2018, Mexican center-left president Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has relentlessly targeted conventional farming techniques, especially the growing and import of GMO food and animal feed. This policy reversal enraged most farmers but emboldening activist and indigenous groups that supported AMLO during the campaign.
His target: Crops modified to reduce the use of more toxic herbicides and dramatically reduce the spraying of insecticides has helped spur increased yields in many other countries.
AMLO’s sharp policy reversal cites cultural concerns. He and his supporters among the organic and regenerative agriculture lobbies claim that GM crops are dangerous incursions into indigenous agriculture and its broader culture. His new policies, he claimed, would:
…contribute to food security and sovereignty” and protect “native corn, cornfields, bio-cultural wealth, farming communities, gastronomic heritage and the health of Mexicans.
Whether AMLO succeeds with this GMO rejectionist policy remains a huge question mark. He launched this initiative in a 2020 New Year’s Eve decree. Mexico previously had halted all official biotechnology food or feed product approvals in 2018 but this new proposed policy went much further. He issued two presidential edicts phasing in bans on the herbicide glyphosate and genetically modified corn to full take effect by 2024. [GM corn and select other crops are modified to be resistant to the weedkiller, making pest control far easier and less expensive.]
Obrador also soon announced a three-year phaseout of the import of GM yellow corn for human consumption. Mexico, one of the largest buyers of US corn, has evolved a close partnership with Canada and the US. The grain trade between the US and Mexico has such importance that there are specific considerations in the inter-country agreement to protect farmers and their interests.
It’s not clear whether the phased-in ban would also extend to the import of corn for cattle feed. Under NAFTA and its successor — the three-headed trade agreement between Canada, the US and Mexico known as CUSMA, USMCA and T-MEC — the United States has seen a 400% increase in corn exports to Mexico, the vast majority of it genetically modified yellow dent corn (also known as grain corn, a type of field corn with a high soft starch content).
Stand-off: Science vs activism
Some Mexican officials say imports of US-grown GMO yellow corn for animal feed will continue but American farmers are skeptical noting there is no official Mexican document assuring them that these imports won’t be banned as well.
Banning the import of US-grown GM corn would significantly affect US farmers and roil the food market. Closing the Mexican market to US corn could send corn prices in the US down sharply, which would be particularly painful for corn-belt states.
US Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack says he has discussed this issue with Obrador, stressing that halting corn shipments would hurt Mexican consumers, particularly the poor.
“I informed him about the importance of understanding the role of biotechnology, the role of production and the connection with his livestock industry,” Vilsack said, adding that an inconsistent message from Mexico on biotechnology could chill innovation in the sector.
But the political and activist opposition to GM and gene-edited crop varieties is fierce, led by the extremist edge of the environmental movement, mostly US-based lobby groups. For example, Pesticide Action Network, one of many advocacy groups that reject conventional agriculture and the use of genetically modified seeds, has praised the ban as a “huge win for small farmers and Native communities”.
PAN’s Mexican partner, Red de Acción sobre Plaguicidas y Alternativas en México (RAPAM), hailed the decision as a cultural, enviornmental and economic victory:
[I]n order to achieve self-sufficiency and food sovereignty, our country must focus on establishing a sustainable and culturally appropriate agricultural production, through the use of practices and agroecological inputs that are safe for human health, the country’s biocultural diversity and the environment, as well as congruent with the agricultural traditions of Mexico.
Where is the policy now?
Twenty months after the president announced his plan, global farming and food production are in disarray as the result of war disruptions and escalating climate events. Consequently, many Mexican farmers are having second thoughts, beset with uncertainty as agriculture officials and trade groups assess the likely negative impacts of GM crop bans, including a disruption in the Mexican food chain.
A recent report released by World Grain showed that Mexico imports approximately 17M tons/year of GM corn with the US as top supplier. A ban could increase Mexico’s food insecurity and add $4.4bn to its corn imports costs.
The impact on the poor could be catastrophic if the world food crisis continues or worse, escalates. Mexico is already not a food self-sufficient nation. As I’ve previously written:
Mexico is the sixth largest producer of maize in the world, but it is also a major consumer of this crop. Even though domestic production traditionally met the entire demand for white maize, the country currently has to import more than 5 million tons of white maize and 8.15 million tons of yellow maize, representing a 45 percent deficit.
If prices rise as they inevitably would under these new policies, a high percentage of the Mexican population would be unable to afford nutritious food. As the MAIZALL delegation (which includes members from the Brazilian Association of Corn Producers, Argentine Corn and Sorghum Association, the National Corn Growers Association and US Grains Council) recently noted:
It is unlikely that enough non-GM corn would be available in international markets by 2024 to meet Mexico’s need, leading to food insecurity and increased prices for many of the country’s staple foods.
Facing self-proclaimed 2024 deadline, Obrador Administration is in disarray
The AMLO Administration is selling this policy turn as the best way to protect Mexican biodiversity and culture. As political speech, it works. He and his supporters firmly believe that an increase in organic farming, as well as the adoption of ancient farming techniques such as milpa (a system in which different species coexist, sharing resources like water, light, soil and even ecological interactions, such as the nitrogen fixation provided by beans), are enough to achieve self-sufficiency in this fast-growing nation, now with 121 million people.
But farm experts and agricultural economists say there is no way to satisfy the national demand for corn by relying just on national production.
“This decree is completely divorced from reality,” said José Cacho, president of Mexico’s corn industry chamber CANAMI, the 25-company group that includes top corn millers like Gruma, cereal maker Kellogg and commodity trader Cargill.
There is early evidence that the ban of glyphosate, which is being phased in, has already cut yields, with no tangible benefits to the environment or Mexican farmers. The bans have also sparked the formation of a huge black market for illegal herbicides.
Considering the key role GM corn exports have traditionally played in the state economy, a huge drop-off in maize production courts an economic disaster. A self-imposed economic contraction linked to restrictions on crop biotechnologies could position the country for a Sir Lanka-like collapse, as GM corn is deeply attached to the overall Mexican economy. The ban would disrupt well-established supply chains, from livestock to a dizzying array of condiments and sauces that use starches derived from the corn, according to Jose Cacho president of Mexico’s corn industry chamber of commerce.
There is no government strategy to prepare for the unintended consequences of this sharp policy reversal. Mexico has not invested in research and development to provide alternatives for effective and inexpensive glyphosate, which almost all mainstream scientists and most farmers agree is the safest, most effective, and least costly herbicide on the market.
Obrador’s decree has also exacerbated internal ideological tensions, and it comes at a time when food security has emerged as one of the world’s most pressing issues. While his politics may play well in a country struggling economically, it will not help Mexico avoid a sizable food crisis largely of its own making.
Worse, this crisis comes at a time when there are emerging signs that there is not enough farmland in Mexico to satisfy domestic demand — especially because of the lower yields generated by organic techniques. The yield lag runs as high as 9.5 bushels per acre for corn, the difference between losing money and surviving. A recent Purdue University study found conventional GM corn yields 32% more corn per acre.
Is an alternative strategy possible?
This a case in which no one appears to benefit from what seems like a manufactured crisis. As recently reported in El Economista, US farmers have started to lobby in Washington, urging the government to protect their vulnerable farms. Washington could raise a dispute under the trade agreement clauses that address cooperation between members over regulation of individual government imports. It’s not at all clear that the standing agreements will be enforced, and or if Mexico will be allowed to renege on its agreements.
It’s precisely at this moment that GM corn varieties, home grown and imported, could help stabilize the economy. A state-of-the-art 2018 meta-analysis of two decades of field data on maize found planting GM variety seeds led to a yield increase of as much as 25%, while dramatically lowering the presence of health-endangering mycotoxins and other crop pests.
Despite the efforts of farmers’ associations and seed companies, and legal challenges, the government posture is unlikely to change anytime soon. There is fleeting hope that an alliance between chagrined scientists, disgruntled farmers and worried consumers could put pressure on Obrador to reconsider.
As the politicization of crop biotechnology has unfolded in Mexico City, the country’s crop science community has redoubled its research efforts in hopes the country will strike a better balance between innovation and cultural heritage. Key is embracing next generation GMOS and gene editing crops by relaxing strangulating regulations.
National research centers such as the CINVESTAV are developing highly productive strains of corn resistant to droughts and low temperatures. This novel variety was tested in the lab and proved to be fully functional in the field. But due to current restrictions on GM corn, this variety, like all other Mexican-developed GM crops, will remain in the laboratory and banned for use by Mexican farmers.
Luis Ventura is a biologist with expertise in biotechnology, biosafety and science communication, born and raised in a small town near Mexico City. He is a Plant Genetic Resources International Platform Fellow at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences. Follow him on Twitter @luisventura
