Strawmen and selective statistics: Did The New York Times botch its critique of GMO crops?

|

Andrew Kniss is an internationally respected independent plant scientist and weed specialist at the University of Wyoming. He is best known for his focus on sustainable agriculture. This critique originally appeared on the blog that he contributes to, Control Freaks, under the title “The tiresome discussion of initial GMO expectations”–read it here–and reproduced with the permission of the author.

A new article in the New York Times [“Doubts About the Promised Bounty of Genetically Modified Crops” by Dany Hakim”] has questioned the benefits associated with genetically engineered crops (which I’ll call GMOs for brevity). The response to the article has been pretty predictable; folks who don’t like GMOs are circulating it to say “I told you so.” And ag-twitter has exploded with claims that the New York Times is biased against the technology.

Andrew Kniss

Andrew Kniss

The article makes some reasonable points that GMO crops are not a ‘silver bullet’ cure all technology. But almost any reasonable person has already acknowledged that. In a nutshell, the article has 2 main conclusions: GMO crops don’t yield more, and GMO crops haven’t reduced pesticide use. These two items were initially claimed as reasons to invest in and adopt GMO crops, and for many years, we’ve been hearing about how these crops either have or have not met the initial expectations. Danny Hakim looked at some data and has come down pretty solidly on the side of “have not” met expectations. From the Times article:

An analysis by The Times using United Nations data showed that the United States and Canada have gained no discernible advantage in yields — food per acre — when measured against Western Europe, a region with comparably modernized agricultural producers like France and Germany. Also, a recent National Academy of Sciences report found that “there was little evidence” that the introduction of genetically modified crops in the United States had led to yield gains beyond those seen in conventional crops.

Of all the arguments against GMO crops, the “failure to yield” talking point is among the oldest, and most exasperating to many of us who work in pest management. I addressed this issue a couple years ago:

If you take a broad look at national level data in the US, it is difficult to make a case that GMOs, as a monolithic entity, have had a dramatic impact on crop yields. But I can think of very few traditional plant breeding efforts that have led to a “quantum leap” in crop yields across the board. If the inability to generate a “quantum leap” in crop yield is a failure of crop biotechnology, it is also a failure of traditional plant breeding methods. Does this mean we should stop investing money in traditional breeding efforts? Certainly not. Why should we expect GMO crops to have this kind of impact?

[T]he only reason we’d see an increase in crop yields due to [current GMO] traits is if we didn’t have adequate tools to manage those pests prior to the introduction of the GMO traits. For corn and soybean in particular, it is not at all surprising we’ve not observed major yield increases due to these traits. Corn and soybean represent huge market opportunities for pesticide development, and therefore, many tools were already available to manage weeds and insect pests in those crops.

But there are situations where GMO traits have contributed to major yield increases.

In that post, I used regional USDA data (not national level data, which often ‘washes out’ any regional benefits of various technologies) to show that increases in yield trajectory are likely attributable to the adoption of GMOs. Please read it if you’re interested in the question of GMOs increasing crop yields. Here, I’m going to instead highlight some of the issues with the pesticide use comparison Mr. Hakim relied upon to draw conclusions about how GMOs affected pesticide use. Mr. Hakim states in his article:

At the same time, herbicide use has increased in the United States, even as major crops like corn, soybeans and cotton have been converted to modified varieties. And the United States has fallen behind Europe’s biggest producer, France, in reducing the overall use of pesticides, which includes both herbicides and insecticides.

…in France, use of insecticides and fungicides has fallen by a far greater percentage — 65 percent — and herbicide use has decreased as well, by 36 percent. – Danny Hakim, NYT

I have to say this comparison seems borderline disingenuous; certainly not what I’d expect from an “extensive examination” published in the New York Times. The NYT provides a few charts in the article, one of which supports the statement about France’s reduced pesticide use. But the figures used to compare pesticide use in France vs the USA are convoluted and misleading. First, the data is presented in different units (thousand metric tons for France, compared to million pounds in the US), making a direct comparison nearly impossible. Second, the pesticide amounts are not standardized per unit area, which is critically important since the USA has over 9 times the amount of farmland that France does; it would be shocking if the U.S. didn’t use far more pesticide when expressed this way. So took the data presented by Mr. Hakim and converted it into the same units, and standardized by arable land, and this is what that same data looks like:hakimsamescale-1024x802

It is true that France has been reducing pesticide use, but France still uses more pesticides per arable hectare than we do in the USA. In the case of fungicide & insecticides, a LOT more. But a relatively tiny proportion of these differences are likely due to GMOs; pesticide use depends on climate, pest species, crop species, economics, availability, tillage practices, crop rotations, and countless other factors. And almost all of these factors differ between France and the U.S. So this comparison between France and the U.S., especially at such a coarse scale, is mostly meaningless, especially with respect to the GMO question. If one of France’s neighboring EU countries with similar climate and cropping practices had adopted GMOs, that may have been a more enlightening (but still imperfect) comparison.

Given all of these confounding factors, I wonder why France was singled out by Mr. Hakim as the only comparison to compare pesticide use trends. Pesticide use across Europe varies quite a bit, and trends in most EU countries are increasing, France is the exception in this respect, not the rule. In the early 1990’s, France was using more herbicides compared to almost every other country, so it shouldn’t be too surprising that pesticide use decreased as formation of the EU began to standardize pesticide regulations after 1993. If the increase in herbicide use in the U.S. is due to GMOs, what can explain the increase in herbicide use throughout most of Europe, where GMO varieties are not available?europeherbicideuse-1024x512

But all of the discussion about weight of pesticides applied doesn’t really provide much insight into pesticide use anyway, especially when it comes to the impacts of GMO crops. An increase in the weight applied could be due to replacing 5 or 6 different pesticides for one pesticide that is used at a higher rate. Or we could decrease pesticide weight applied by substituting one relatively safe pesticide for one that is highly toxic, but used at a lower rate. This problem was noted by the recent National Academies report on GMO crops (emphasis mine):

The use of HR crops sometimes initially correlated with decreases in total amount of herbicide applied per hectare of crop per year, but the decreases have not generally been sustained. However, such simple determination of whether total kilograms of herbicide used per hectare per year has gone up or down is not useful for assessing changes in human or environmental risks.

RECOMMENDATION: Researchers should be discouraged from publishing data that simply compares total kilograms of herbicide used per hectare per year because such data can mislead readers. – National Academies, GE Crop Report

Mr. Hakim cited the NAS report to support his conclusions on yield gains, but apparently missed this important recommendation from the report. Instead of looking at weight of pesticides applied, it is more instructive to look at the number of active ingredients being applied to each field. I recently did this for the U.S. and found that herbicide treatments were increasing in the three glyphosate resistant crops (corn, soybean, and cotton). But herbicide use was also increasing in rice and wheat, where no GMO varieties are commercially available. In fact, the pace of herbicide increase was slower in the GMO crops than non-GMO crops. From these data, one could make a plausible argument that GMO crops have decreased herbicide use, since the increase in herbicide use has been slower compared to non-GMO crops. But this is the problem with trying construct a narrative from imperfect, national-level data. I don’t actually know whether GMO crops have increased or decreased herbicide use (and neither does Mr. Hakim). We can each use different versions of the best data available to fit a particular narrative if we want to. But the answer is far more complex than anything we can derive from data that weren’t explicitly generated with this question in mind.areatreatment6plot-1024x585

Mr. Hakim decided not to delve too deeply into the toxicity differences in the pesticides being used, except for the following (rather remarkable) comment:

Pesticides are toxic by design — weaponized versions, like sarin, were developed in Nazi Germany — and have been linked to developmental delays and cancer. – Danny Hakim, NYT

I’m a little taken aback that Mr Hakim went full Godwin in the New York Times in an article about GMOs and pesticides. Setting that aside, it is indisputable that pesticides are, indeed, toxic. But so are antibiotics, and pet flea collars, and nutritional supplements, and salt, and caffeine, and almost every other thing we come into contact with in our daily lives. With respect to the impacts of pesticide use, the question should be how toxic, and to which organisms? The toxicity of different pesticides differs dramatically, by several orders of magnitude. And many pesticides are practically non-toxic to humans. To say that pesticides are all toxic, while certainly true, misses the point. The questions we should be asking is whether we are using pesticides that are more or less toxic than we would be using if we didn’t have GMOs. Mr. Hakim decided not to address this issue. But I have.

The herbicide that we’re using more of because of GMO crops has probably contributed to a major reduction in chronic toxicity (I say probably, because again, we can’t know for sure what would happen in an alternate universe without GMOs). Glyphosate has a lower chronic toxicity than 90% of all herbicides used in the US in the last 25 years. In 2014 to 2015, glyphosate made up 26% of corn, 43% of soybean, and 45% of cotton herbicide treatments, yet only contributed 0.1%, 0.3%, and 3.5% of the total chronic toxicity of herbicide use in those crops, respectively.

There are trade-offs involved with every decision farmers make, including the choice to use (or not use) glyphosate and GMO crops. If GMO crops were not available in the U.S., or if glyphosate use were discontinued (as was recently proposed in the EU), the resulting displacement of glyphosate by other herbicides would almost certainly have a negative impact on chronic health risks faced pesticide applicators and farm workers.

I really hope the conversation can eventually move beyond whether GMO crops have met some arbitrary initial expectations, regardless of the origin of those expectations. If that means we all need to simply acknowledge that GMO’s have failed to meet those goals, then fine. I concede. Not because I think the data overwhelmingly support that conclusion, but because this is a tiresome conversation that distracts from much more important issues in agriculture. GMO’s have not (and will not) result in an agricultural panacea. But that doesn’t mean they don’t have value.

Andrew Kniss is an internationally respected independent plant scientist and weed specialist at the University of Wyoming. He is best known for his focus on sustainable agriculture. This critique originally appeared on the blog that he contributes to, Control Freaks, under the title “The tiresome discussion of initial GMO expectations”–read it here–and reproduced with the permission of the author. Follow Andrew on Twitter @WyoWeeds

  • Steven Blackthorne

    In the post-script, you write “The tiresome discussion of initial GMO expectations”–read it here–” I assume that you meant to create a hyperlink of those last three words, but on my computer, at least, the link does not appear.

  • rp518dan

    Just a second. The Agriculture Industry has been telling us for years that we are heartless baby-killers for not supporting GMO’s because they increase crop yeild and reduce the need for pesticides. We, and our sources, were insulted and compared to flat-earthers when we cited published data indicating that the benefits were highly exagerated. They were wrong and have been cooking the books all this time and now, at least for the next couple of weeks, we are to discuss how they do have value.

    • agscienceliterate

      Well, now, I have an answer to your question. Talk to a farmer who uses them and ask him or her why they do.
      And then you can wipe that smug arrogance off your face.

      • rp518dan

        I have been reading articles and posts on this topic for long enough to know who the smug and arrogant people are.

        As to the farmers, the mythological small,independent, “family farmer” is not the source of the bulk of the food grown in the US.

        Those that remain are being shaken down by lawyers if they attempt to grow crops near GM or the supposedly sterile patented seed crops. The “impossible” is routine. You can prove that by asking who stole the seeds to plant roundup resistant canola all over the highways in the West. If the plants belong to Monsanto if they are in a farmer’s field, why isn’t Monsanto getting their invasive plants off of the sides of our roads? Are they going to sue the government like they sue farmers?

        • agscienceliterate

          1) Farmers are not routinely sued, unless they violate the terms of their contract.
          2) Seeds are not sterile. There are no sterile seeds. If they were, there would be no controversy over replanting them now, would there?
          3) Seeds of all types have been patented since 1930. This is not a GE issue.
          You claim to have been reading articles for a while. You sure haven’t learned anything from whatever you read. “Smug and arrogant”? Look in the mirror. Woefully uninformed? Take a second look.

          • rp518dan
          • Jackson

            It can sometimes be hard to decipher the intended meaning of comments when they only post a link with none of their own commentary.

            By linking to that article, are you saying that organic farming groups harass Monsanto by filing baseless lawsuits against them? Or are you linking to a story about organic farmers suing Monsanto as evidence in support of Monsanto suing farmers?

          • rp518dan

            Um, context please.
            I was replying to a dishonest comment that said farmers are not being sued for the neighboring farms cross pollinating their fields and them being accused of stealing.

          • Jackson

            And in support of that, you posted an example of organic farm groups suing Monsanto? That case was decided against the plaintiff because they couldn’t come up with a single example of farmers being sued for cross pollination. The article you posted and the case it refers to directly contradict your stated opinion.

        • Aguirre15

          I’m very impressed that you have been “reading articles and posts”. May I suggest you go out and kick some dirt….or, maybe better yet, pound sand.

          • rp518dan

            Is this your “bad cop” identity?
            How many do you have?

          • Guest

            Another one of Jeffrey’s army of trolls, hoping to get his PayPal $

          • Aguirre15

            For fearmongers like you, trafficking in misinformation, I have only the one you see.

          • rp518dan

            That’s nerve. Aren’t you the one saying that the world is going to starve if we don’t go with more GM crops?

        • Larkin Curtis Hannah

          Actually family farms make up some 90% of all farms in the US. They are bigger though than in the past. As a member of one of these farms, let me tell you we are NOT afraid of being sued by seed companies simply because we buy the seed we plant. And, the seeds we produce are not sterile. If you live in the Midwest where the crops are now being harvested, just drive by the fields and you will see seed that didn’t get harvested are now sprouting and growing in the harvested fields. The first freeze however will get them. By your argument, we could be sued for “planting” harvested seed. No one worries, since everybody competent in agriculture knows seeds left in the field will germinate, but killing weather will get them before they are big enough for harvest. I think a little time out in the fields and talking with farmers would be quite helpful to you.

          • rp518dan
          • JP

            Only in farming is it not acceptable to laypeople if operations make use of economies of scale.

          • rp518dan

            The “family farmer” is an excuse for welfare programs for large corporations. There was mention of “talk to a farmer”, which is a bit disingenuous.

          • agscienceliterate

            I suggested you talk to a farmer. How is that “disingenuous”? Because it will never ever happen, since, as Farmer Sue has said on Disqus before, “Your mind is slammed shut tighter than a hog’s ass at fly time” ?

            And just how are family farmers an “excuse” for welfare programs?

          • Larkin Curtis Hannah

            As a member of a family farm and one who has received government payment for low prices/low yields, I would love to see the data you mention. As far as I can remember, I have received less than a thousand dollars over many years on an investment of many hundreds of thousands of dollars. You don’t farm if you think the government is going to fund you.

          • rp518dan

            Just a sec, I say that the laws dishonestly proclaim they are there to help family farmers and that they really hand truckloads of taxpayer money to large corporate farms like:

            General Mills
            Kellogs
            Mars
            Mondelez
            Nestle
            Unilever
            Cargill
            ADM

            I also claim that these companies hire astro-turf groups to advance their twisting of the facts.

          • Larkin Curtis Hannah

            Actually I don’t think that is the case. Every year, I have to sign a statement concerning my income. If it is above a certain amount, I am not eligible for any government payments. The amount is high ($800,000) for an individual but totally insignificant for the companies you list above.

          • rp518dan

            Here’s an example of subsidies going to billionaires.

            http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/11/farm-bill-billionaires_n_4256365.html

          • Larkin Curtis Hannah

            Again, I know the form I have to sign.

          • Aguirre15

            Interesting point. I get the impression that many of the fearmongers on these pages have an idyllic or idealistc view of what they think farming should be. For most of us, I daresay, farming is a business and like any business the good ones are always looking for ways to grow and improve. Farmers are natural born tinkerers in many ways.

          • Larkin Curtis Hannah

            My point is that although there are large farms, the vast majority are still owned and run by families.

          • Aguirre15

            I think this person probably thinks farmers are too stupid to know what a grower license agreement is. A little time on the farm would indeed be quite eye opening.

        • agscienceliterate

          “Shaken down”? Give proof.
          There are no “sterile patented seeds.” (Wake up. If they were sterile, why would they need to be patented? Duhhhh.). There are no sterile seeds. But there are patented seeds. And seeds have been patented since 1930.
          Your conspiracy about “stolen” seeds planted all over the highways is ludicrous.
          Now, tell us again what “articles and posts” you have been reading.

          • rp518dan

            The courts have sided with the industry that the presence of patented roundup resistant canola on a farmer’s field is proof that the farmer has stolen from them. They claim that it is impossible for this to occur by cross-pollination. Then, how is it that GM canola is found on roadsides?

            If a farmer refuses to purchase GM seeds and such “impossible” cross polination occurs they get sued. They cave in to this shakedown because you cannot fight the agriculture industry who hire thousands or creepy lawyers and trolls like you guys.

            http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/gm-canola-spread-widely-outside-n-d-farms-study-1.927779

          • agscienceliterate
          • hyperzombie

            Then, how is it that GM canola is found on roadsides?
            Falls out of trucks on the way to market, same reason it is found on railway tracks. Canola seed is very small.

            The farmer that was sued by monsanto for patent infringement did NOT claim that it was caused by cross contamination.

            And why are you trying to defend the guy, he was trying to sell his own roundup ready seeds. If he would have won the case their would be even more GMO canola.

    • Aguirre15

      No, you are heartless babykillers for standing in the way of vitamin A enriched Golden Rice, for purely ideological and cynically political reasons. For that, yes, you and your fellow travelers are guilty as charged.

      • rp518dan

        I never complained about Golden Rice.
        Never.
        I claim that the savings attained by using herbacides on entire crops have been exaggerated–even before taking into account health and environmental considerations– whose expense is borne by others.

        I claim that it is grossly irresponsible to feed human beings insecticide, whether it’s labelled “natural” or not. I blame GM Bt crops on altering human intestinal flora and claim that this has led to the dramatic increases we have witnessed in illness that can be traced to our gut biomes.

        Chron’s
        Diabetes
        Autism
        IBD
        and many other illnesses result from eating Bt foods.

        • agscienceliterate

          Bt does not have an effect on the human gut. It only affects the insect gut.
          http://ucbiotech.org/answer.php?question=31

          If you have some credible citations to your attributing these “many other illnesses,” post them.

        • Aguirre15

          Absolute rubbish! Bt is a a natural protein which happens to be toxic to a very narrow spectrum of insects. It is readily broken down in the digestive system just like most other proteins we consume. Furthermore, almost all Bt corn produced up til now has been fed to animals where studies have shown it also does not survive digestion intact so how in the hell is it finding its way into the human digestive tract or blood stream??

        • JP

          You do understand that humans have been eating insecticide since the beginning of eating plants, yes? 99.9% of pesticide load is naturally-evolved plant defenses.

          http://www.pnas.org/content/87/19/7777.full.pdf

  • rp518dan

    “France uses more pesticides per arable acre.” Break that one down, please. Compare by specific crops and compare insecticide not by volume but by both concentration and strength. Many new pesticides require less quantity. Are we to compare them to older ones?

  • Damo

    Actualy, this article does less to demonstrate the safety and need for GMOs than it does to demonstrate the need for peer-reviewed science and scientific literature written for the layman to be not written by the layman.

    Most people would not understand some of this even when spelled out for them–let alone when obviously obfuscated by the author.

  • morphd

    For all his cherry picking, at least Hakim made the following statements in his NYT article:

    “The controversy over genetically modified crops has long focused on largely unsubstantiated fears that they are unsafe to eat.”

    And

    “Fears about the harmful effects of eating G.M. foods have proved to be largely without scientific basis.”

    One step forward?

  • Stuart M.

    Thank you for this excellent take-down of an obviously biased article. I didn’t catch the bogus apples and oranges in the weights and area sizes used in the comparison between America and France. I wonder how many people reading that article are under the illusion that what is practiced in France and the rest of the non-GMO EU area is organic farming. Nothing could be further from the truth. This is conventional non-GMO agriculture which also uses many of the exact same pesticides used in GMO crops. The yields for organic agriculture are of course far behind conventional and GMO crop yields. The sarin comment by Hakim was certainly outlandish but even more strange was his citation of a Harvard Professor who claimed “17 million points of IQ have been lost to American children under the age of five” due to pesticide ingestion. According to Kniss’s corrected comparison of weights and areas between France and America, the dramatically higher use of pesticides in France should then have produced 30 million in lost IQ points among French five and unders! Yes, it was a very painful article to read and it appeared in the “newspaper of record.”

  • H. Miller

    “Borderline disingenuous?” More like completely incompetent, biased and misleading — a hatchet-job. See http://www.forbes.com/sites/henrymiller/2016/11/02/the-gray-lady-soils-herself-again/#335952593fc6.

  • SammyP

    Hi, random user here. I don’t like popups while I’m trying to read your article.