The more we learn about the history of our own world, and the wider solar system, the more we see how both minor and major events in one era can cascade into radical changes in another. Contingency beats at the heart of many things; from planetary orbits to the present nature of life on Earth…Our problem seems to be an inability to turn inaction into action, to stay focused and on task as a collective of hominids. It appears that we need constant reminding and nudging.
…
I wonder if we don’t need more of these reminders, and perhaps a little more quantitative clout. After all, we live in the age of deep learning, Bayesian statistics, and simulated future climates and societies. Instead of a warning buzzer, can’t we estimate the probability of what’s to come? … Right now I have nothing to offer except a cheeky example, laden with dark humor [image below]. But I think this could be done seriously (with genuine probabilities and projections), and perhaps it’s time we looked at these odds for our future and used them to guide our choices instead of relying on either optimism or pessimism.
The GLP aggregated and excerpted this blog/article to reflect the diversity of news, opinion, and analysis. Read full, original post: Putting Odds on the Human Future
