Why are COVID cases declining dramatically in India?

Lauren Frayer | NPR | February 9, 2021

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[Four months after a COVID case surge], India’s coronavirus numbers have plummeted. Late last month, on Jan. 26, the country’s Health Ministry confirmed a record low of about 9,100 new daily cases — in a country of nearly 1.4 billion people.

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Scientists say it’s a mystery. They’re probing why India’s coronavirus numbers have declined so dramatically — and so suddenly, in September and October, months before any vaccinations began.

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The truth is, scientists just don’t know.

“Three options: One is that it’s gone because of the way people behaved, so we need to continue that behavior. Or it’s gone because it’s gone and it’s never going to come back — great!” says [health economist Jishnu] Das, from Georgetown. “Or it’s gone, but we don’t know why it’s gone — and it may come back.”

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