A global shift towards healthier, more sustainable eating patterns could reshape agricultural employment across the world, according to new research from the University of Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute (ECI).
The study, published in The Lancet Planetary Health, examined how dietary patterns such as flexitarian, pescatarian, vegetarian and vegan diets – would affect the number of people working to grow, raise and harvest food in 179 countries.
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They found that adopting more plant-based diets could reduce global agricultural labour needs by 5–28 per cent (equivalent to 18–106 million full-time jobs) by 2030, mainly due to lower demand for livestock production.
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At the same time, around 18–56 million additional full-time workers could be needed in horticulture to produce fruits, vegetables, legumes and other plant-based foods. Overall, these changes could reduce global labour costs by US $290–995 billion per year (adjusted for purchasing power parity), equal to around 0.2–0.6 per cent of global GDP.
While these shifts could bring efficiency gains, the study emphasises the need for policy and planning to ensure that transitions are fair.
