Even if global warming does not exceed two degrees, it could lead to more serious consequences than expected.
This is the conclusion of a new study published in Nature.
Jana Sillmann at CICERO Center for International Climate Research, together with colleagues in Germany and Switzerland, has examined the risks of moderate global warming.
They focused on three types of events: flooding, drought in key agricultural areas, and forest fires.
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The new study shows that individual simulations may predict stronger changes at two degrees of warming than the average projections for a world that is three or four degrees warmer.
“The main point of the study is that we cannot just look at the average. Even at two degrees of warming, the climate may produce extreme rainfall or drought that could have a very large impact,” says Sillmann.
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“Each model represents a realistic and plausible development of the climate in the future,” she points out.
This means that more severe outcomes cannot simply be dismissed as incorrect, even if they are less likely.
