‘Perfect storm’: Why the coronavirus shut the world down, when SARS, Ebola and swine flu didn’t

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A nurse outside a SARS clinic in suburban Toronto on April 24, 2003. Credit: Mike Cassese/Reuters

In the past two decades, the world battled Ebola, SARS and more than one major flu outbreak. Those left tragedies in their wake but didnโ€™t cause the same level of societal and economic disruption that COVID-19 has. As a result, they can help us understand this new coronavirus.

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SARS and MERS didnโ€™t cause the same level of devastation that COVID-19 has largely because they arenโ€™t as easily transmitted. Rather than moving by casual, person-to-person transmission, SARS and MERS spread from much closer contact, between family members or health care workers and patients.

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[W]hy didnโ€™t the swine flu overwhelm our health care systems and grind our economies to a halt? The main difference is that it ended up being a much milder and less deadly infection. There are a range of estimated case fatality rates for swine flu, but even the highest, less than 0.1 percent, are much lower than the current estimates for COVID-19.

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In each of these cases, the viral outbreak lacked one of the key components that COVID-19 has that allowed it to tip over into a global pandemic. โ€œSARS-CoV-2 is kind of a perfect storm,โ€ said Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Columbia University who specializes in infectious diseases.

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