As the threat of tariffs looms, the U.S. agriculture market is expected to be one of the main industries to be hit by economic fallout.
The market is split on the timing and size of tariffs on China, the EU, Mexico, Canada, and now Russia—but traders, analysts and farmers are preparing in the same way they did in 2018.
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Traders need to include President Trump’s threat of levying a 10% tariff on imports from China and the EU by Feb. 1—in addition to the 25% already promised on Mexican and Canadian imports—as they determine the value of grain and livestock futures.
If tariffs on China move forward, or if tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and the EU advance, then volatility in agricultural markets is predicted to explode—running counter to the brief sense of calm traders felt after Trump’s slate of day-one executive orders did not include new tariffs.
