Australia’s first-in-the-world social media ban for kids under 16 has so far produced more workarounds than results. That’s exactly why researchers should treat the global wave of new restrictions as a massive natural experiment, argues Camilla Iannone, research lead in the mental health evidence team at Wellcome, in an op-ed for STAT.
Since Australia’s December 2025 ban, Indonesia has followed suit, and the European Union has barred social media for children under 13 and personal accounts for those under 15. Meanwhile, Meta agreed to pay up to $18 billion to settle U.S. claims that Facebook and Instagram harmed children, and promised “safety by design” features such as hiding like counts.
Whether any of it helps teen mental health is an open question. An evaluation published in the BMJ found little evidence of substantial reductions in social media use three months into Australia’s ban, with many teens simply dodging age-verification systems. Australia’s online watchdog reports that more than 80% of kids still use a restricted platform.
Peer pressure matters, too. Research by behavioral economist Leonardo Bursztyn and colleagues found that teens believed their friends were still online and said they’d be more willing to quit if more peers did.
Even a well-enforced ban may not work the same for everyone. “The evidence increasingly suggests that there is unlikely to be a single ‘social media effect’ that impacts all teenagers in the same way,” Iannone writes. Age, existing mental health problems, sleep, gender, socioeconomic background, geography and LGBTQ+ identity could all shape how restrictions land.
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Wellcome plans to fund evaluations of the U.K.’s ban, slated for spring 2027, involving tens of thousands of teenagers. A youth advisory group pushed the funder to ask what fills the void: outdoor hobbies, friendships and better sleep, or boredom and unregulated online spaces.
“In short, the young people were asking researchers to evaluate changes in their lives, rather than simply looking at changes in their screen time,” Iannone writes.
